A major investment bank points to signs that bode well for the performance of hotel companies in the fourth quarter. The increase in bookings for group events is a key factor. Plus, other news about hotel deals and development around the world.
Alan Woinski and Sean O’Neill, Skift
Strong forecast for the fourth quarter
Truist analysts gave their reservations and forward-looking rates trends for american hotels, and said they see no signs of slowing demand. In fact, they expect revenue per available room to grow at a faster rate in the fourth quarter.
Truist said the strength will depend on several factors: the group’s activities; a lower seasonal composition of leisure activities; a moderate acceleration in the growth of business travel (particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises); and international visitors returning to the United States
Based primarily on group bookings, said Truist 2024 looks very encouraging. A takeover of the group could neutralize any possible stabilization in leisure demand or pricing power. Some analysts take a negative view and expect RevPAR to decline in 2024. Truist analysts say they actually see the opposite happening.
Marriott is hosting its Investor Day later this month and analysts at Truist said they wouldn’t be surprised if third-quarter RevPAR growth in the U.S. and Canada came in at the high end of the forecast. 2 to 4%, or even slightly. above. Among hosting stocks, Truist continues to have Hyatt as their favorite name among hotel groups.
Flickers of optimism in San Francisco
In July, hotels in San Francisco/San Mateo were busy down 31.7% compared to 2019 levels, according to the Hotel Benchmarking Service STR. Its hotels were, on average, only 57.5% full. Headwinds affecting the city’s slow recovery from the pandemic include the remote working habits of many local employers (making inbound business travel less convenient) and reduced tourism from China, which was a major source. visitors before the pandemic.
Truist reported on his visit to san francisco for the Visit Impact Summit. The good news is that the fall 2023 events in San Francisco are getting a little better. The bad news is that the pace of Congress 2024 in the city so far remains slow; 2025-2029 remains for now well below the more than 800,000 annual room nights seen by Truist are necessary for hotel sales, pricing power and profits.
Truist remains cautious about the recovery of tourism in San Francisco until at least 2024, but believes market performance may improve faster than consensus expectations. International air transport in Asia-Pacific can also facilitate non-group activities.
Thailand tries to attract Chinese visitors
Thailand seeks to attract Chinese tourists with visa exemptions which will come into force in October. The move follows a noticeable drop in Chinese tourist arrivals in the first seven months of the year. The estimate was 5-7 million Chinese tourists in the first seven months. Instead, there were only 2 million. It welcomed 11 million Chinese visitors in 2019. (Read more in the South China Morning Post.)
The Thai Hotel Association said new ministerial regulation allowing accommodation places with no more than eight rooms and 30 guests to be excluded from the hotel sector would lead to a loss of 15 to 20% of tourism revenue and an increase in security risks, reported the Bangkok Post. The Tourism Council of Thailand pushed for this new rule, saying it would boost the number of local host families.
All of Asia is disappointed by the lack of post-pandemic boom in Chinese outbound tourism. Macau and Hong Kong are the only destinations where visits are higher than expected.
Expansion of an ultra-luxury hotel
SH Hotels & Resorts would like to bring its ultra-luxury Baccarat brand to melbourne, Australiaafter the opening of the group’s first Australian property, a 1 hotel on the north shore of that of Melbourne Yarra, according to the Australian Financial Review.
Currently there is only one Baccarat hotel, and it’s in Manhattan. But a handful are in the books global.
SH is also looking for bring 1 hotels has sydney and make Australia a hub for its expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.