Airbnb will survive the regulatory crackdown in New York as it generated only about 1% of its revenue in 2022. The city remains a big market nonetheless, and that’s going to hurt.
Thousands of Airbnb listings could be at risk after Sept. 5, when New York City announced it would begin enforcing its rules. guest registration law regarding short-term rentals.
Estimates are a moving target.
Although the listings are still on the platform, Airbnb says it will disable stay schedules with ineligible hosts starting September 5.
There is several rules that determine eligibility, including: Registered hosts can only book stays of less than 30 days and must be present during the guest’s stay. Additionally, hosts must register with the New York Office of Special Enforcement — only 257 applications have been approved so far. Skift reported this week.
And how the city will enforce the law is unclear. Skift obtained an email from the city’s public defender’s office to a host that stated, “OSE will not proactively impose fines except for flagrant violations; like hosting a large number of people without being registered. A large number of applications are pending; however, individuals who have gone to great lengths to register may qualify for leniency from the agency.
Still, Airbnb said it generated $85 million in revenue in New York in 2022, and the number of risky listings is significant, according to data provided to Skift by AirDNA.
- There were 47,000 total registrations in July, of which only about 23,000 were active.
- Of the 23,000, 9,500 were private rooms or shared spaces where hosts can apply for OSE registrations. Only a few of them will ultimately be approved.
- Around 13,500 concerned entire houses or apartments. Among these, around 6,000 would seem exempt as they are either hotels or accept stays of 30 days or more.
- This leaves 7,500 ads for the most part may no longer be able to host legally unless they change operations. Another 3,500 entire homes and apartments – not shared spaces – are either new or lightly rented because they don’t have many reviews.
Suppose the OSE has approved 1,000 registrations by next Tuesday, which would be a stretch. That would still leave 8,500 unregistered private rooms. And 7,500 entire homes are subject to the new regulations. This represents 16,000 – or 70% of the 23,000 active listings – for which Airbnb cannot accept reservations.
AirDNA’s chief economist, Jamie Lane, said he was focusing on what would happen with the 4,100 very active whole-home listings, which presumably have to meet stricter regulations and are responsible for around 40 % of Airbnb revenue in the city.
Much of that could change. The city could speed up the speed of registration approvals and denials. And some of those non-exempt entire homes could be converted to start accepting minimum stays of 30 days or more, which doesn’t fit short-term rental rules, or convert some of those homes to acceptable shared spaces.
Other cities that have implemented short-term rental regulations have seen their guest numbers rebound from early dips. New York City may do the same.
Reported skift this week, the city had only approved 257 foster applications, denied 72 and returned 479, seeking clarification. The Office of Special Enforcement only reviewed about 25% of the 3,250 requests it received, more than half of which arrived after August 8, when a lawsuit filed by Airbnb challenging the recording’s enforcement was dismissed. rejected.
Airbnb declined to comment on its New York listing count. However, in a court filing, Airbnb said, “As of May 29, 2023, guests have booked over 56,500 New York rentals through Airbnb that are expected to begin after July 1, 2023.”
Airbnb was already down in active listings from July 2019, down 23,000 in 2023 from 36,000 in 2019.